{"id":9562,"date":"2026-02-24T03:40:32","date_gmt":"2026-02-24T03:40:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/?p=9562"},"modified":"2026-04-27T11:16:13","modified_gmt":"2026-04-27T11:16:13","slug":"why-are-chemicals-considered-the-next-non-ferrous-metals","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/tr\/why-are-chemicals-considered-the-next-non-ferrous-metals\/","title":{"rendered":"Kimyasallar neden bir sonraki demir d\u0131\u015f\u0131 metaller olarak kabul ediliyor?"},"content":{"rendered":"<h1><strong>Kimyasallar neden bir sonraki demir d\u0131\u015f\u0131 metaller olarak kabul ediliyor?<\/strong><\/h1>\r\nSon zamanlarda bir\u00e7ok arkada\u015f\u0131m bana soruyor: <strong><b>ki\u0307mya sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fc taki\u0307p etmek hala g\u00fcvenli\u0307 mi\u0307?<\/b><\/strong>\r\n\r\nBu do\u011fru - <a href=\"https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\">kimyasallar<\/a> have surged sharply over the past six months, with the entire sector up roughly 70% and countless stocks doubling. But the stronger the rally, the more anxious people become: afraid of buying at the top, yet also scared of missing out.\r\n\r\nAs someone with <strong><b>Malzeme sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde 15 y\u0131l<\/b><\/strong>\u00a0- 2016'daki arz y\u00f6nl\u00fc reformu ya\u015fam\u0131\u015f ve say\u0131s\u0131z d\u00f6ng\u00fcye tan\u0131kl\u0131k etmi\u015f biri olarak, bu kimyasal rallinin ard\u0131ndaki temel mant\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u0131kmak istiyorum. Amac\u0131m kritik bir soruyu yan\u0131tlaman\u0131za yard\u0131mc\u0131 olmak:\r\n\r\n<strong><b>Neden <a href=\"https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/\">kimyasal<\/a> \u00dcr\u00fcn fiyatlar\u0131 sabitken veya d\u00fc\u015ferken bile hisse senedi fiyatlar\u0131 ikiye katlan\u0131yor mu?<\/b><\/strong>\r\n<h2><strong><b>G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcrdeki \u00c7eli\u015fki: Hisse Senedi Fiyatlar\u0131 Y\u00fckseliyor Ama \u00dcr\u00fcn Fiyatlar\u0131 Hareket Etmiyor<\/b><\/strong><\/h2>\r\nLet\u2019s start with a striking observation.\r\n\r\nFrom May last year to now, the chemical sector has performed extremely well. But looking back at our lab\u2019s purchasing records:\r\n<ul>\r\n \t<li><b><\/b><strong><b>OKUL AILE BIRLI\u011eI<\/b><\/strong>Ocak 2026'da ton ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 5.200 yuan - May\u0131s 2025'tekiyle hemen hemen ayn\u0131.<\/li>\r\n \t<li><b><\/b><strong><b>Soda k\u00fcl\u00fc<\/b><\/strong>daha da zay\u0131flayarak ton ba\u015f\u0131na 1.300'den 1.200 yuana d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/li>\r\n \t<li><b><\/b><strong><b>MDI, TDI<\/b><\/strong>ve di\u011fer \u00f6nemli kimyasallar tarihi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelere yak\u0131n seyretmektedir.<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\nWorse still are corporate earnings. At an industry conference last month, a technical director from a listed chemical company told me wryly:\r\n\r\n\u201cOur company lost 300 million yuan in Q3, but our stock rose 50%. Even I can\u2019t explain it.\u201d\r\n\r\nThis is the market\u2019s biggest paradox:<strong><b>Hisse senetleri co\u015fkulu, \u00fcr\u00fcnler durgun ve \u015firketler para kaybediyor.<\/b><\/strong>\r\n\r\nBy normal logic, this sounds like a greater-fool game.\r\n\r\nBut consider this: in January 2026 alone, the chemical sector saw <strong><b>120 milyar yuan net sermaye giri\u015fi<\/b><\/strong>. Kim sat\u0131n al\u0131yordu? Kurumlar, perakende yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar de\u011fil. Bu oyuncular sadece d\u00fc\u015fen bir b\u0131\u00e7a\u011f\u0131 yakalamak i\u00e7in ger\u00e7ek para ak\u0131tm\u0131yorlar.\r\n\r\n<strong><b>Peki tam olarak ne g\u00f6r\u00fcyorlar?<\/b><\/strong>\r\n\r\n<img decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-9563\" src=\"https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/chemicals-1.webp\" alt=\"kimyasallar\" width=\"3462\" height=\"2084\" srcset=\"https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/chemicals-1.webp 3462w, https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/chemicals-1-768x462.webp 768w, https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/chemicals-1-1536x925.webp 1536w, https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/chemicals-1-2048x1233.webp 2048w, https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/chemicals-1-18x12.webp 18w, https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/chemicals-1-1196x720.webp 1196w, https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/chemicals-1-600x361.webp 600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 3462px) 100vw, 3462px\" \/>\r\n<h2><strong><b>Bug\u00fcn\u00fc Anlamak \u0130\u00e7in 2016'y\u0131 Anlamak Gerekir<\/b><\/strong><\/h2>\r\nBu mitingi kavramak i\u00e7in, \u00f6ncelikle \u015fu olayda ne oldu\u011funu anlaman\u0131z gerekir <strong><b>2016<\/b><\/strong>.\r\n\r\nWhen I entered the industry in 2010, chemical plants operated under a brutal logic:\r\n\r\n\u201cWhoever expands capacity dies, but whoever doesn\u2019t expand dies faster.\u201d\r\n\r\nTake one example. In 2014, we worked with a PTA producer running at only 60% capacity, yet they kept producing at a loss. Why? Because shutting down meant losing customers and market share. Everyone thought the same way, creating a vicious cycle of industry-wide losses.\r\n\r\nThe <strong><b>2016 arz y\u00f6nl\u00fc reform<\/b><\/strong>\u00a0broke this deadlock.\r\n\r\nI know the National Bureau of Statistics figures by heart:From 2016 to 2020, the chemical industry eliminated more than <strong><b>G\u00fcncel olmayan kapasitede 30%<\/b><\/strong>Ama daha da \u00f6nemlisi: <strong><b>yeni kapasite art\u0131\u015f\u0131 etkin bir \u015fekilde s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131<\/b><\/strong>.\r\n\r\nStarting in 2017, I led environmental impact assessment (EIA) applications for several new projects. I personally experienced how difficult approval became: layers of checks for environmental protection, safety, and energy consumption. A small project often took two years to approve \u2014 let alone large-scale facilities.\r\n\r\nThen, from 2022 to 2025, the chemical industry suffered consecutive years of losses. The result?<strong><b>2026-2027 y\u0131llar\u0131nda neredeyse hi\u00e7bir \u00f6nemli yeni kapasitenin devreye girmesi planlanmamaktad\u0131r.<\/b><\/strong>\r\n\r\nBu ne anlama geliyor?<strong><b>Kimya sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki arz, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131llar i\u00e7in etkin bir \u015fekilde kilitlenmi\u015f durumda.<\/b><\/strong>\r\n<h2><strong><b>Beklentiler Neden Ger\u00e7e\u011fin \u00d6n\u00fcne Ge\u00e7iyor?<\/b><\/strong><\/h2>\r\nYou might ask: I get that supply is constrained, but demand is still weak. Why are stocks rising first?\r\n\r\nLet me share a story.\r\n\r\nIn 2016, shortly after I joined my current company, I led a technical upgrade on an old plant. A neighboring chemical factory had closed, and its equipment was being scrapped and sold as scrap metal. My boss at the time \u2014 a 30-year industry veteran \u2014 looked out the window and said something I still remember:\r\n\r\n\u201cWhen prices rise later, we\u2019ll be the ones calling the shots.\u201d\r\n\r\nI didn\u2019t fully understand it then. Now I know he was right.\r\n\r\nWhen only a few major players remain on the supply side, <strong><b>fiyatland\u0131rma g\u00fcc\u00fc tamamen de\u011fi\u015fir<\/b><\/strong>Eski mant\u0131k \u015fuydu: <em>Siz fiyatlar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmezseniz, ba\u015fkas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrecektir.<\/em>Yeni mant\u0131k \u015fu: <em>Siz fiyatlar\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131rsan\u0131z, di\u011ferleri de sizi takip edecektir.<\/em>This isn\u2019t monopoly; it\u2019s a natural evolution of market structure.\r\n\r\nSmart money doesn\u2019t wait for prices to rise before buying.<strong><b>Bir fiyat toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131n ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz oldu\u011funu g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde al\u0131m yapar.<\/b><\/strong>\r\n\r\n\u0130\u015fte bu y\u00fczden <strong><b>beklentiler ger\u00e7eklerden \u00f6nce gelir<\/b><\/strong>.\r\n\r\nTake soda ash as a real-world example. At 1,200 yuan per ton, it\u2019s clearly at a low level. But think about this:If supply is locked, even a <strong><b>talepte \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 toparlanma<\/b><\/strong>\u00a0could trigger a sharp price jump.\r\n\r\nChemicals have a U-shaped cost curve. The cost of marginal capacity is extremely high. Once demand picks up, prices can jump sharply above marginal cost.\r\n\r\n<strong><b>Kurumlar bu \"bir kez\" \u00fczerine bahis oynuyor.<\/b><\/strong>\r\n\r\n<div id=\"attachment_9531\" style=\"width: 3472px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-9531\" class=\"size-full wp-image-9531\" src=\"https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Liquid-silicone-rubber.webp\" alt=\"kimyasallar\" width=\"3462\" height=\"2084\" srcset=\"https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Liquid-silicone-rubber.webp 3462w, https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Liquid-silicone-rubber-768x462.webp 768w, https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Liquid-silicone-rubber-1536x925.webp 1536w, https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Liquid-silicone-rubber-2048x1233.webp 2048w, https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Liquid-silicone-rubber-18x12.webp 18w, https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Liquid-silicone-rubber-1196x720.webp 1196w, https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Liquid-silicone-rubber-600x361.webp 600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 3462px) 100vw, 3462px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-9531\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">kimyasallar<\/p><\/div>\r\n<h2><strong><b>Mevcut Ritim Nas\u0131l Okunur<\/b><\/strong><\/h2>\r\n\u015eimdiye kadar k\u00f6r\u00fc k\u00f6r\u00fcne y\u00fckseli\u015fte oldu\u011fumu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015f olabilirsiniz. Ama de\u011filim.\r\n\r\n<strong><b>Uzun vadeli mant\u0131k ve k\u0131sa vadeli fiyat hareketi iki farkl\u0131 \u015feydir.<\/b><\/strong>\r\n\r\nIn my experience, cyclical sectors like chemicals never move straight up. They advance two steps, retreat one \u2014 sometimes even one up, two down. Why? When expectations become too unanimous, some investors rush in early, while others take profits.\r\n\r\nI saw a similar script in 2017. After supply-side reform was announced, optimism exploded and stocks surged. Then the 2018 trade war crushed demand expectations, and prices gave back most of their gains. But by 2019\u20132020, companies with real cost advantages and technical barriers hit new highs.\r\n\r\nHere\u2019s my current approach:\r\n<ul>\r\n \t<li>I <strong><b>kovalamayacak<\/b><\/strong>iki kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kan ama yine de zarar eden hisse senetleri.<\/li>\r\n \t<li>Bunun yerine, \u015funlara odaklan\u0131yorum <strong><b>kapasitenin tamamen temizlendi\u011fi segmentler<\/b><\/strong>\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki iki y\u0131l i\u00e7inde yeni arz\u0131n olmayaca\u011f\u0131 ve oyuncular\u0131n maliyet veya teknik hendeklere sahip oldu\u011fu yerler.<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n\u00d6rnekler \u015funlar\u0131 i\u00e7erir:\r\n<ul>\r\n \t<li><b><\/b><strong><b>MDI<\/b><\/strong>: Sadece bir avu\u00e7 k\u00fcresel \u00fcretici, neredeyse hi\u00e7 yeni kapasite yok - talep toparlan\u0131rsa muazzam art\u0131\u015f.<\/li>\r\n \t<li>Kesin <strong><b>\u00f6zel i\u0307nce ki\u0307myasallar<\/b><\/strong>: Daha k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck piyasa de\u011ferleri ancak yeni rakipleri d\u0131\u015far\u0131da tutan y\u00fcksek teknik engeller.<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<h2><strong><b>D\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcc\u00fc Bir Hipotez<\/b><\/strong><\/h2>\r\nFinally, I&#8217;d like to propose a potentially bold hypothesis.\r\n\r\nViewing this rally only as a \u201ccyclical reversal from locked supply + recovering demand\u201d may be too simplistic.\r\n\r\n<strong><b>Kimya end\u00fcstrisinin de\u011ferleme \u00e7er\u00e7evesi tamamen yeniden yap\u0131land\u0131r\u0131l\u0131yor olabilir mi?<\/b><\/strong>\r\n\r\nGe\u00e7mi\u015fte, <a href=\"https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/\">kimyasallar<\/a> Ancak ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck olarak, arz\u0131n uzun vadede k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131 kalmas\u0131 halinde, \u00f6nde gelen \u015firketler \u00e7ok daha dar kar oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131, daha istikrarl\u0131 nakit ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc temett\u00fc kapasitesi g\u00f6recektir.\r\n\r\n<strong><b>Hala konjonkt\u00fcrel hisse senetleri mi olacaklar?<\/b><\/strong>Or could they gradually shift toward a valuation logic closer to utilities or consumer staples?\r\n\r\nI\u2019ve already started allocating part of my holdings based on this view. Of course, this is only a hypothesis \u2014 time will tell if it proves correct.\n\n\n<p><strong>Related product references:<\/strong> For formulation review or sourcing comparison, see <a href=\"https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/product\/chlumiao-ho-17-17eh\/\">CHLUMIAO HO-17\/17EH<\/a> ve <a href=\"https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/product\/chlumiao-hs-502-503-504-603-605-608-101\/\">CHLUMIAO HS-502\/503\/504\/603\/605\/608\/101<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Lately, many friends have been asking me: is it still safe to chase the chemical sector? It\u2019s true \u2014 chemicals have surged sharply over the past six months, with the entire sector up roughly&#8230;<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[120],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9562","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Why are chemicals considered the next non-ferrous metals?- Changhong Chemical<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Lately, many friends have been asking me: is it still safe to chase the chemical sector? It\u2019s true \u2014 chemicals have surged sharply over the past six months, with the entire sector up roughly 70% and countless stocks doubling. 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