{"id":9562,"date":"2026-02-24T03:40:32","date_gmt":"2026-02-24T03:40:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/?p=9562"},"modified":"2026-04-27T11:16:13","modified_gmt":"2026-04-27T11:16:13","slug":"why-are-chemicals-considered-the-next-non-ferrous-metals","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/pt\/why-are-chemicals-considered-the-next-non-ferrous-metals\/","title":{"rendered":"Por que os produtos qu\u00edmicos s\u00e3o considerados os pr\u00f3ximos metais n\u00e3o ferrosos?"},"content":{"rendered":"<h1><strong>Por que os produtos qu\u00edmicos s\u00e3o considerados os pr\u00f3ximos metais n\u00e3o ferrosos?<\/strong><\/h1>\r\nUltimamente, muitos amigos t\u00eam me perguntado: <strong><b>ainda \u00e9 seguro perseguir o setor qu\u00edmico?<\/b><\/strong>\r\n\r\n\u00c9 verdade. <a href=\"https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\">produtos qu\u00edmicos<\/a> have surged sharply over the past six months, with the entire sector up roughly 70% and countless stocks doubling. But the stronger the rally, the more anxious people become: afraid of buying at the top, yet also scared of missing out.\r\n\r\nAs someone with <strong><b>15 anos no setor de materiais<\/b><\/strong>\u00a0- que vivenciou a reforma do lado da oferta de 2016 e testemunhou in\u00fameros ciclos - quero explicar a l\u00f3gica fundamental por tr\u00e1s dessa manifesta\u00e7\u00e3o qu\u00edmica. Meu objetivo \u00e9 ajud\u00e1-lo a responder a uma pergunta fundamental:\r\n\r\n<strong><b>Por que <a href=\"https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/\">qu\u00edmica<\/a> os pre\u00e7os das a\u00e7\u00f5es dobram, mesmo quando os pre\u00e7os dos produtos est\u00e3o est\u00e1veis ou em queda?<\/b><\/strong>\r\n<h2><strong><b>A aparente contradi\u00e7\u00e3o: Os pre\u00e7os das a\u00e7\u00f5es disparam, mas os pre\u00e7os dos produtos n\u00e3o se movem<\/b><\/strong><\/h2>\r\nLet\u2019s start with a striking observation.\r\n\r\nFrom May last year to now, the chemical sector has performed extremely well. But looking back at our lab\u2019s purchasing records:\r\n<ul>\r\n \t<li><b><\/b><strong><b>PTA<\/b><\/strong>em janeiro de 2026 custam cerca de 5.200 yuans por tonelada - aproximadamente o mesmo que em maio de 2025.<\/li>\r\n \t<li><b><\/b><strong><b>Carbonato de s\u00f3dio<\/b><\/strong>enfraqueceu ainda mais, caindo de 1.300 para 1.200 yuans por tonelada.<\/li>\r\n \t<li><b><\/b><strong><b>MDI, TDI<\/b><\/strong>e outros produtos qu\u00edmicos importantes permanecem pr\u00f3ximos aos m\u00ednimos hist\u00f3ricos.<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\nWorse still are corporate earnings. At an industry conference last month, a technical director from a listed chemical company told me wryly:\r\n\r\n\u201cOur company lost 300 million yuan in Q3, but our stock rose 50%. Even I can\u2019t explain it.\u201d\r\n\r\nThis is the market\u2019s biggest paradox:<strong><b>As a\u00e7\u00f5es est\u00e3o euf\u00f3ricas, os produtos est\u00e3o estagnados e as empresas est\u00e3o perdendo dinheiro.<\/b><\/strong>\r\n\r\nBy normal logic, this sounds like a greater-fool game.\r\n\r\nBut consider this: in January 2026 alone, the chemical sector saw <strong><b>120 bilh\u00f5es de yuans em entradas l\u00edquidas de capital<\/b><\/strong>. Quem estava comprando? Institui\u00e7\u00f5es, n\u00e3o investidores de varejo. Esses participantes n\u00e3o est\u00e3o investindo dinheiro real apenas para pegar uma faca em queda.\r\n\r\n<strong><b>Ent\u00e3o, o que exatamente eles est\u00e3o vendo?<\/b><\/strong>\r\n\r\n<img decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-9563\" src=\"https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/chemicals-1.webp\" alt=\"produtos qu\u00edmicos\" width=\"3462\" height=\"2084\" srcset=\"https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/chemicals-1.webp 3462w, https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/chemicals-1-768x462.webp 768w, https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/chemicals-1-1536x925.webp 1536w, https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/chemicals-1-2048x1233.webp 2048w, https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/chemicals-1-18x12.webp 18w, https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/chemicals-1-1196x720.webp 1196w, https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/chemicals-1-600x361.webp 600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 3462px) 100vw, 3462px\" \/>\r\n<h2><strong><b>Para entender hoje, voc\u00ea precisa entender 2016<\/b><\/strong><\/h2>\r\nPara entender esse rali, primeiro voc\u00ea precisa entender o que aconteceu em <strong><b>2016<\/b><\/strong>.\r\n\r\nWhen I entered the industry in 2010, chemical plants operated under a brutal logic:\r\n\r\n\u201cWhoever expands capacity dies, but whoever doesn\u2019t expand dies faster.\u201d\r\n\r\nTake one example. In 2014, we worked with a PTA producer running at only 60% capacity, yet they kept producing at a loss. Why? Because shutting down meant losing customers and market share. Everyone thought the same way, creating a vicious cycle of industry-wide losses.\r\n\r\nThe <strong><b>Reforma do lado da oferta em 2016<\/b><\/strong>\u00a0broke this deadlock.\r\n\r\nI know the National Bureau of Statistics figures by heart:From 2016 to 2020, the chemical industry eliminated more than <strong><b>30% de capacidade ultrapassada<\/b><\/strong>Mas ainda mais importante: <strong><b>a expans\u00e3o da nova capacidade foi efetivamente limitada<\/b><\/strong>.\r\n\r\nStarting in 2017, I led environmental impact assessment (EIA) applications for several new projects. I personally experienced how difficult approval became: layers of checks for environmental protection, safety, and energy consumption. A small project often took two years to approve \u2014 let alone large-scale facilities.\r\n\r\nThen, from 2022 to 2025, the chemical industry suffered consecutive years of losses. The result?<strong><b>Praticamente nenhuma nova capacidade importante est\u00e1 programada para entrar em opera\u00e7\u00e3o em 2026-2027.<\/b><\/strong>\r\n\r\nO que isso significa?<strong><b>O fornecimento em todo o setor qu\u00edmico est\u00e1 efetivamente bloqueado para os pr\u00f3ximos anos.<\/b><\/strong>\r\n<h2><strong><b>Por que as expectativas se movem antes da realidade?<\/b><\/strong><\/h2>\r\nYou might ask: I get that supply is constrained, but demand is still weak. Why are stocks rising first?\r\n\r\nLet me share a story.\r\n\r\nIn 2016, shortly after I joined my current company, I led a technical upgrade on an old plant. A neighboring chemical factory had closed, and its equipment was being scrapped and sold as scrap metal. My boss at the time \u2014 a 30-year industry veteran \u2014 looked out the window and said something I still remember:\r\n\r\n\u201cWhen prices rise later, we\u2019ll be the ones calling the shots.\u201d\r\n\r\nI didn\u2019t fully understand it then. Now I know he was right.\r\n\r\nWhen only a few major players remain on the supply side, <strong><b>o poder de precifica\u00e7\u00e3o muda completamente<\/b><\/strong>A l\u00f3gica antiga era: <em>Se voc\u00ea n\u00e3o reduzir os pre\u00e7os, outra pessoa o far\u00e1.<\/em>A nova l\u00f3gica \u00e9: <em>Se voc\u00ea aumentar os pre\u00e7os, os outros o seguir\u00e3o.<\/em>This isn\u2019t monopoly; it\u2019s a natural evolution of market structure.\r\n\r\nSmart money doesn\u2019t wait for prices to rise before buying.<strong><b>Ele compra quando v\u00ea a inevitabilidade de uma recupera\u00e7\u00e3o de pre\u00e7os.<\/b><\/strong>\r\n\r\n\u00c9 por isso que <strong><b>as expectativas precedem a realidade<\/b><\/strong>.\r\n\r\nTake soda ash as a real-world example. At 1,200 yuan per ton, it\u2019s clearly at a low level. But think about this:If supply is locked, even a <strong><b>recupera\u00e7\u00e3o modesta da demanda<\/b><\/strong>\u00a0could trigger a sharp price jump.\r\n\r\nChemicals have a U-shaped cost curve. The cost of marginal capacity is extremely high. Once demand picks up, prices can jump sharply above marginal cost.\r\n\r\n<strong><b>As institui\u00e7\u00f5es est\u00e3o apostando nessa \"vez\".<\/b><\/strong>\r\n\r\n<div id=\"attachment_9531\" style=\"width: 3472px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-9531\" class=\"size-full wp-image-9531\" src=\"https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Liquid-silicone-rubber.webp\" alt=\"produtos qu\u00edmicos\" width=\"3462\" height=\"2084\" srcset=\"https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Liquid-silicone-rubber.webp 3462w, https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Liquid-silicone-rubber-768x462.webp 768w, https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Liquid-silicone-rubber-1536x925.webp 1536w, https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Liquid-silicone-rubber-2048x1233.webp 2048w, https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Liquid-silicone-rubber-18x12.webp 18w, https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Liquid-silicone-rubber-1196x720.webp 1196w, https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Liquid-silicone-rubber-600x361.webp 600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 3462px) 100vw, 3462px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-9531\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">produtos qu\u00edmicos<\/p><\/div>\r\n<h2><strong><b>Como ler o ritmo atual<\/b><\/strong><\/h2>\r\nA esta altura, voc\u00ea deve estar pensando que estou cegamente otimista. N\u00e3o estou.\r\n\r\n<strong><b>A l\u00f3gica de longo prazo e a a\u00e7\u00e3o do pre\u00e7o de curto prazo s\u00e3o duas coisas diferentes.<\/b><\/strong>\r\n\r\nIn my experience, cyclical sectors like chemicals never move straight up. They advance two steps, retreat one \u2014 sometimes even one up, two down. Why? When expectations become too unanimous, some investors rush in early, while others take profits.\r\n\r\nI saw a similar script in 2017. After supply-side reform was announced, optimism exploded and stocks surged. Then the 2018 trade war crushed demand expectations, and prices gave back most of their gains. But by 2019\u20132020, companies with real cost advantages and technical barriers hit new highs.\r\n\r\nHere\u2019s my current approach:\r\n<ul>\r\n \t<li>I <strong><b>n\u00e3o vai perseguir<\/b><\/strong>a\u00e7\u00f5es que dobraram, mas ainda operam com preju\u00edzo.<\/li>\r\n \t<li>Em vez disso, eu me concentro em <strong><b>segmentos em que a capacidade foi totalmente liberada<\/b><\/strong>A empresa tem um mercado de mercado de alto valor agregado, sem novos suprimentos nos pr\u00f3ximos dois anos, e onde os participantes t\u00eam custos ou vantagens t\u00e9cnicas.<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\nOs exemplos incluem:\r\n<ul>\r\n \t<li><b><\/b><strong><b>MDI<\/b><\/strong>: Apenas um punhado de produtores globais, quase nenhuma nova capacidade - grande vantagem se a demanda se recuperar.<\/li>\r\n \t<li>Certo <strong><b>produtos qu\u00edmicos finos especiais<\/b><\/strong>: Menor capitaliza\u00e7\u00e3o de mercado, mas com altas barreiras t\u00e9cnicas, impedindo a entrada de novos concorrentes.<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<h2><strong><b>Uma hip\u00f3tese instigante<\/b><\/strong><\/h2>\r\nFinally, I&#8217;d like to propose a potentially bold hypothesis.\r\n\r\nViewing this rally only as a \u201ccyclical reversal from locked supply + recovering demand\u201d may be too simplistic.\r\n\r\n<strong><b>A estrutura de avalia\u00e7\u00e3o do setor qu\u00edmico poderia estar passando por uma reestrutura\u00e7\u00e3o completa?<\/b><\/strong>\r\n\r\nNo passado, <a href=\"https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/\">produtos qu\u00edmicos<\/a> Mas, no futuro, se a oferta permanecer restrita no longo prazo, as empresas l\u00edderes ter\u00e3o uma volatilidade de lucros muito menor, um fluxo de caixa mais est\u00e1vel e uma capacidade de dividendos mais forte.\r\n\r\n<strong><b>Elas continuar\u00e3o sendo a\u00e7\u00f5es c\u00edclicas?<\/b><\/strong>Or could they gradually shift toward a valuation logic closer to utilities or consumer staples?\r\n\r\nI\u2019ve already started allocating part of my holdings based on this view. Of course, this is only a hypothesis \u2014 time will tell if it proves correct.\n\n\n<p><strong>Related product references:<\/strong> For formulation review or sourcing comparison, see <a href=\"https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/product\/chlumiao-ho-17-17eh\/\">CHLUMIAO HO-17\/17EH<\/a> e <a href=\"https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/product\/chlumiao-hs-502-503-504-603-605-608-101\/\">CHLUMIAO HS-502\/503\/504\/603\/605\/608\/101<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Lately, many friends have been asking me: is it still safe to chase the chemical sector? It\u2019s true \u2014 chemicals have surged sharply over the past six months, with the entire sector up roughly&#8230;<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[120],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9562","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Why are chemicals considered the next non-ferrous metals?- Changhong Chemical<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Lately, many friends have been asking me: is it still safe to chase the chemical sector? It\u2019s true \u2014 chemicals have surged sharply over the past six months, with the entire sector up roughly 70% and countless stocks doubling. 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