{"id":9562,"date":"2026-02-24T03:40:32","date_gmt":"2026-02-24T03:40:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/?p=9562"},"modified":"2026-04-27T11:16:13","modified_gmt":"2026-04-27T11:16:13","slug":"why-are-chemicals-considered-the-next-non-ferrous-metals","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/nl\/why-are-chemicals-considered-the-next-non-ferrous-metals\/","title":{"rendered":"Waarom worden chemicali\u00ebn beschouwd als de volgende non-ferrometalen?"},"content":{"rendered":"<h1><strong>Waarom worden chemicali\u00ebn beschouwd als de volgende non-ferrometalen?<\/strong><\/h1>\r\nDe laatste tijd vragen veel vrienden me: <strong><b>Is het nog steeds veilig om achter de chemische sector aan te gaan?<\/b><\/strong>\r\n\r\nHet is waar. <a href=\"https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\">chemicali\u00ebn<\/a> have surged sharply over the past six months, with the entire sector up roughly 70% and countless stocks doubling. But the stronger the rally, the more anxious people become: afraid of buying at the top, yet also scared of missing out.\r\n\r\nAs someone with <strong><b>15 jaar in de materialenindustrie<\/b><\/strong>\u00a0- die de hervorming van de aanbodzijde in 2016 heeft meegemaakt en getuige is geweest van talloze cycli - wil ik de fundamentele logica achter deze chemische rally ontleden. Mijn doel is om je te helpen \u00e9\u00e9n cruciale vraag te beantwoorden:\r\n\r\n<strong><b>Waarom zijn <a href=\"https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/\">chemische<\/a> aandelenprijzen verdubbelen, zelfs als de productprijzen gelijk blijven of dalen?<\/b><\/strong>\r\n<h2><strong><b>De schijnbare tegenstelling: Aandelenprijzen schieten omhoog, maar productprijzen bewegen niet<\/b><\/strong><\/h2>\r\nLet\u2019s start with a striking observation.\r\n\r\nFrom May last year to now, the chemical sector has performed extremely well. But looking back at our lab\u2019s purchasing records:\r\n<ul>\r\n \t<li><b><\/b><strong><b>PTA<\/b><\/strong>in januari 2026 ongeveer 5.200 yuan per ton kosten - ongeveer hetzelfde als in mei 2025.<\/li>\r\n \t<li><b><\/b><strong><b>Natriumcarbonaat<\/b><\/strong>is verder verzwakt en daalde van 1.300 naar 1.200 yuan per ton.<\/li>\r\n \t<li><b><\/b><strong><b>MDI, TDI<\/b><\/strong>en andere belangrijke chemicali\u00ebn blijven in de buurt van historische dieptepunten.<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\nWorse still are corporate earnings. At an industry conference last month, a technical director from a listed chemical company told me wryly:\r\n\r\n\u201cOur company lost 300 million yuan in Q3, but our stock rose 50%. Even I can\u2019t explain it.\u201d\r\n\r\nThis is the market\u2019s biggest paradox:<strong><b>Aandelen zijn euforisch, producten stagneren en bedrijven verliezen geld.<\/b><\/strong>\r\n\r\nBy normal logic, this sounds like a greater-fool game.\r\n\r\nBut consider this: in January 2026 alone, the chemical sector saw <strong><b>120 miljard yuan netto-instroom van kapitaal<\/b><\/strong>. Wie kocht er? Instellingen, geen particuliere beleggers. Deze spelers storten geen echt geld in om een vallend mes te vangen.\r\n\r\n<strong><b>Wat zien ze dan precies?<\/b><\/strong>\r\n\r\n<img decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-9563\" src=\"https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/chemicals-1.webp\" alt=\"chemicali\u00ebn\" width=\"3462\" height=\"2084\" srcset=\"https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/chemicals-1.webp 3462w, https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/chemicals-1-768x462.webp 768w, https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/chemicals-1-1536x925.webp 1536w, https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/chemicals-1-2048x1233.webp 2048w, https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/chemicals-1-18x12.webp 18w, https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/chemicals-1-1196x720.webp 1196w, https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/chemicals-1-600x361.webp 600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 3462px) 100vw, 3462px\" \/>\r\n<h2><strong><b>Om vandaag te begrijpen, moet je 2016 begrijpen<\/b><\/strong><\/h2>\r\nOm deze rally te begrijpen, moet je eerst begrijpen wat er gebeurde in <strong><b>2016<\/b><\/strong>.\r\n\r\nWhen I entered the industry in 2010, chemical plants operated under a brutal logic:\r\n\r\n\u201cWhoever expands capacity dies, but whoever doesn\u2019t expand dies faster.\u201d\r\n\r\nTake one example. In 2014, we worked with a PTA producer running at only 60% capacity, yet they kept producing at a loss. Why? Because shutting down meant losing customers and market share. Everyone thought the same way, creating a vicious cycle of industry-wide losses.\r\n\r\nThe <strong><b>2016 hervorming aanbodzijde<\/b><\/strong>\u00a0broke this deadlock.\r\n\r\nI know the National Bureau of Statistics figures by heart:From 2016 to 2020, the chemical industry eliminated more than <strong><b>30% van verouderde capaciteit<\/b><\/strong>Maar nog belangrijker: <strong><b>nieuwe capaciteitsuitbreiding werd effectief beperkt<\/b><\/strong>.\r\n\r\nStarting in 2017, I led environmental impact assessment (EIA) applications for several new projects. I personally experienced how difficult approval became: layers of checks for environmental protection, safety, and energy consumption. A small project often took two years to approve \u2014 let alone large-scale facilities.\r\n\r\nThen, from 2022 to 2025, the chemical industry suffered consecutive years of losses. The result?<strong><b>Er is vrijwel geen grote nieuwe capaciteit gepland voor 2026-2027.<\/b><\/strong>\r\n\r\nWat betekent dit?<strong><b>De bevoorrading van de hele chemische industrie is voor de komende jaren op slot gezet.<\/b><\/strong>\r\n<h2><strong><b>Waarom gaan verwachtingen v\u00f3\u00f3r de werkelijkheid?<\/b><\/strong><\/h2>\r\nYou might ask: I get that supply is constrained, but demand is still weak. Why are stocks rising first?\r\n\r\nLet me share a story.\r\n\r\nIn 2016, shortly after I joined my current company, I led a technical upgrade on an old plant. A neighboring chemical factory had closed, and its equipment was being scrapped and sold as scrap metal. My boss at the time \u2014 a 30-year industry veteran \u2014 looked out the window and said something I still remember:\r\n\r\n\u201cWhen prices rise later, we\u2019ll be the ones calling the shots.\u201d\r\n\r\nI didn\u2019t fully understand it then. Now I know he was right.\r\n\r\nWhen only a few major players remain on the supply side, <strong><b>de prijsmacht verschuift volledig<\/b><\/strong>De oude logica was: <em>Als jij je prijzen niet verlaagt, doet iemand anders het wel.<\/em>De nieuwe logica is: <em>Als je de prijzen verhoogt, zullen anderen volgen.<\/em>This isn\u2019t monopoly; it\u2019s a natural evolution of market structure.\r\n\r\nSmart money doesn\u2019t wait for prices to rise before buying.<strong><b>Het koopt wanneer het de onvermijdelijkheid van een prijsstijging ziet.<\/b><\/strong>\r\n\r\nDaarom <strong><b>verwachtingen gaan vooraf aan de werkelijkheid<\/b><\/strong>.\r\n\r\nTake soda ash as a real-world example. At 1,200 yuan per ton, it\u2019s clearly at a low level. But think about this:If supply is locked, even a <strong><b>bescheiden herstel van de vraag<\/b><\/strong>\u00a0could trigger a sharp price jump.\r\n\r\nChemicals have a U-shaped cost curve. The cost of marginal capacity is extremely high. Once demand picks up, prices can jump sharply above marginal cost.\r\n\r\n<strong><b>Instellingen zetten in op die \"ene keer\".<\/b><\/strong>\r\n\r\n<div id=\"attachment_9531\" style=\"width: 3472px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-9531\" class=\"size-full wp-image-9531\" src=\"https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Liquid-silicone-rubber.webp\" alt=\"chemicali\u00ebn\" width=\"3462\" height=\"2084\" srcset=\"https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Liquid-silicone-rubber.webp 3462w, https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Liquid-silicone-rubber-768x462.webp 768w, https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Liquid-silicone-rubber-1536x925.webp 1536w, https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Liquid-silicone-rubber-2048x1233.webp 2048w, https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Liquid-silicone-rubber-18x12.webp 18w, https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Liquid-silicone-rubber-1196x720.webp 1196w, https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Liquid-silicone-rubber-600x361.webp 600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 3462px) 100vw, 3462px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-9531\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">chemicali\u00ebn<\/p><\/div>\r\n<h2><strong><b>Het huidige ritme lezen<\/b><\/strong><\/h2>\r\nNu denk je misschien dat ik blindelings bullish ben. Dat ben ik niet.\r\n\r\n<strong><b>Logica op lange termijn en prijsactie op korte termijn zijn twee verschillende dingen.<\/b><\/strong>\r\n\r\nIn my experience, cyclical sectors like chemicals never move straight up. They advance two steps, retreat one \u2014 sometimes even one up, two down. Why? When expectations become too unanimous, some investors rush in early, while others take profits.\r\n\r\nI saw a similar script in 2017. After supply-side reform was announced, optimism exploded and stocks surged. Then the 2018 trade war crushed demand expectations, and prices gave back most of their gains. But by 2019\u20132020, companies with real cost advantages and technical barriers hit new highs.\r\n\r\nHere\u2019s my current approach:\r\n<ul>\r\n \t<li>I <strong><b>zal niet achtervolgen<\/b><\/strong>Voorraden die verdubbeld zijn maar nog steeds met verlies draaien.<\/li>\r\n \t<li>In plaats daarvan richt ik me op <strong><b>segmenten waar de capaciteit volledig is vrijgemaakt<\/b><\/strong>, met geen nieuw aanbod in de komende twee jaar, en waar spelers kosten- of technische moats hebben.<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\nVoorbeelden zijn:\r\n<ul>\r\n \t<li><b><\/b><strong><b>MDI<\/b><\/strong>: Slechts een handvol wereldwijde producenten, bijna geen nieuwe capaciteit - enorme opwaartse kracht als de vraag zich herstelt.<\/li>\r\n \t<li>Bepaalde <strong><b>fijnchemicali\u00ebn<\/b><\/strong>: Kleinere marktkapitalisaties maar hoge technische barri\u00e8res die nieuwe concurrenten buiten de deur houden.<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<h2><strong><b>Een tot nadenken stemmende hypothese<\/b><\/strong><\/h2>\r\nFinally, I&#8217;d like to propose a potentially bold hypothesis.\r\n\r\nViewing this rally only as a \u201ccyclical reversal from locked supply + recovering demand\u201d may be too simplistic.\r\n\r\n<strong><b>Zou het waarderingskader van de chemische industrie een volledige herstructurering kunnen ondergaan?<\/b><\/strong>\r\n\r\nIn het verleden, <a href=\"https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/\">chemicali\u00ebn<\/a> Maar in de toekomst, als het aanbod op lange termijn beperkt blijft, zullen toonaangevende bedrijven een veel kleinere winstvolatiliteit, een stabielere kasstroom en een sterkere dividendcapaciteit zien.\r\n\r\n<strong><b>Zullen het nog steeds cyclische aandelen zijn?<\/b><\/strong>Or could they gradually shift toward a valuation logic closer to utilities or consumer staples?\r\n\r\nI\u2019ve already started allocating part of my holdings based on this view. Of course, this is only a hypothesis \u2014 time will tell if it proves correct.\n\n\n<p><strong>Related product references:<\/strong> For formulation review or sourcing comparison, see <a href=\"https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/product\/chlumiao-ho-17-17eh\/\">CHLUMIAO HO-17\/17EH<\/a> en <a href=\"https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/product\/chlumiao-hs-502-503-504-603-605-608-101\/\">CHLUMIAO HS-502\/503\/504\/603\/605\/608\/101<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Lately, many friends have been asking me: is it still safe to chase the chemical sector? It\u2019s true \u2014 chemicals have surged sharply over the past six months, with the entire sector up roughly&#8230;<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[120],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9562","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Why are chemicals considered the next non-ferrous metals?- Changhong Chemical<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Lately, many friends have been asking me: is it still safe to chase the chemical sector? It\u2019s true \u2014 chemicals have surged sharply over the past six months, with the entire sector up roughly 70% and countless stocks doubling. 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Het is waar - de chemische sector is de afgelopen zes maanden sterk gestegen, met een stijging van de hele sector van ongeveer 70% en talloze aandelen die zijn verdubbeld. Maar hoe sterker de rally, hoe banger mensen worden: bang om op de top te kopen, maar ook bang om iets te missen.","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/nl\/why-are-chemicals-considered-the-next-non-ferrous-metals\/","og_locale":"nl_NL","og_type":"article","og_title":"Why are chemicals considered the next non-ferrous metals?- Changhong Chemical","og_description":"Lately, many friends have been asking me: is it still safe to chase the chemical sector? It\u2019s true \u2014 chemicals have surged sharply over the past six months, with the entire sector up roughly 70% and countless stocks doubling. 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