{"id":9562,"date":"2026-02-24T03:40:32","date_gmt":"2026-02-24T03:40:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/?p=9562"},"modified":"2026-04-27T11:16:13","modified_gmt":"2026-04-27T11:16:13","slug":"why-are-chemicals-considered-the-next-non-ferrous-metals","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/hu\/why-are-chemicals-considered-the-next-non-ferrous-metals\/","title":{"rendered":"Mi\u00e9rt tekintik a vegyi anyagokat a k\u00f6vetkez\u0151 sz\u00ednesf\u00e9meknek?"},"content":{"rendered":"<h1><strong>Mi\u00e9rt tekintik a vegyi anyagokat a k\u00f6vetkez\u0151 sz\u00ednesf\u00e9meknek?<\/strong><\/h1>\r\nAz ut\u00f3bbi id\u0151ben sok bar\u00e1tom k\u00e9rdezte t\u0151lem: <strong><b>m\u00e9g mindig biztons\u00e1gos a vegyipari \u00e1gazatot \u00fcld\u00f6zni?<\/b><\/strong>\r\n\r\nEz igaz - <a href=\"https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\">vegyi anyagok<\/a> have surged sharply over the past six months, with the entire sector up roughly 70% and countless stocks doubling. But the stronger the rally, the more anxious people become: afraid of buying at the top, yet also scared of missing out.\r\n\r\nAs someone with <strong><b>15 \u00e9v az anyagiparban<\/b><\/strong>\u00a0- aki \u00e1t\u00e9lte a 2016-os k\u00edn\u00e1lati oldali reformot \u00e9s tan\u00faja volt sz\u00e1mtalan ciklusnak - szeretn\u00e9m lebontani a vegyipari rally m\u00f6g\u00f6tt megh\u00faz\u00f3d\u00f3 alapvet\u0151 logik\u00e1t. C\u00e9lom, hogy seg\u00edtsek megv\u00e1laszolni egy kritikus k\u00e9rd\u00e9st:\r\n\r\n<strong><b>Mi\u00e9rt vannak <a href=\"https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/\">vegyi anyag<\/a> a r\u00e9szv\u00e9ny\u00e1rak megdupl\u00e1z\u00f3dnak, m\u00e9g akkor is, ha a term\u00e9k\u00e1rak stagn\u00e1lnak vagy cs\u00f6kkennek?<\/b><\/strong>\r\n<h2><strong><b>A l\u00e1tsz\u00f3lagos ellentmond\u00e1s: A r\u00e9szv\u00e9ny\u00e1rak az egekbe sz\u00f6knek, de a term\u00e9k\u00e1rak nem mozdulnak el<\/b><\/strong><\/h2>\r\nLet\u2019s start with a striking observation.\r\n\r\nFrom May last year to now, the chemical sector has performed extremely well. But looking back at our lab\u2019s purchasing records:\r\n<ul>\r\n \t<li><b><\/b><strong><b>PTA<\/b><\/strong>2026 janu\u00e1rj\u00e1ban tonn\u00e1nk\u00e9nt mintegy 5200 j\u00fcanba ker\u00fcl - nagyj\u00e1b\u00f3l ugyanannyiba, mint 2025 m\u00e1jus\u00e1ban.<\/li>\r\n \t<li><b><\/b><strong><b>Sz\u00f3da hamu<\/b><\/strong>tov\u00e1bb gyeng\u00fclt, tonn\u00e1nk\u00e9nt 1300 j\u00fcanr\u00f3l 1200 j\u00fcanra cs\u00f6kkent.<\/li>\r\n \t<li><b><\/b><strong><b>MDI, TDI<\/b><\/strong>, \u00e9s m\u00e1s kulcsfontoss\u00e1g\u00fa vegyi anyagok tov\u00e1bbra is t\u00f6rt\u00e9nelmi m\u00e9lypontok k\u00f6zel\u00e9ben vannak.<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\nWorse still are corporate earnings. At an industry conference last month, a technical director from a listed chemical company told me wryly:\r\n\r\n\u201cOur company lost 300 million yuan in Q3, but our stock rose 50%. Even I can\u2019t explain it.\u201d\r\n\r\nThis is the market\u2019s biggest paradox:<strong><b>A r\u00e9szv\u00e9nyek euf\u00f3rikusak, a term\u00e9kek stagn\u00e1lnak, a v\u00e1llalatok pedig vesztes\u00e9gesek.<\/b><\/strong>\r\n\r\nBy normal logic, this sounds like a greater-fool game.\r\n\r\nBut consider this: in January 2026 alone, the chemical sector saw <strong><b>120 milli\u00e1rd j\u00fcan nett\u00f3 t\u0151kebe\u00e1raml\u00e1s<\/b><\/strong>. Ki v\u00e1s\u00e1rolt? Int\u00e9zm\u00e9nyek, nem a lakoss\u00e1gi befektet\u0151k. Ezek a szerepl\u0151k nem \u00f6ntik be a val\u00f3di p\u00e9nzt, csak hogy elkapjanak egy zuhan\u00f3 k\u00e9st.\r\n\r\n<strong><b>Teh\u00e1t mit l\u00e1tnak pontosan?<\/b><\/strong>\r\n\r\n<img decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-9563\" src=\"https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/chemicals-1.webp\" alt=\"vegyi anyagok\" width=\"3462\" height=\"2084\" srcset=\"https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/chemicals-1.webp 3462w, https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/chemicals-1-768x462.webp 768w, https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/chemicals-1-1536x925.webp 1536w, https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/chemicals-1-2048x1233.webp 2048w, https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/chemicals-1-18x12.webp 18w, https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/chemicals-1-1196x720.webp 1196w, https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/chemicals-1-600x361.webp 600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 3462px) 100vw, 3462px\" \/>\r\n<h2><strong><b>Ahhoz, hogy meg\u00e9rtsd ma, meg kell \u00e9rtened 2016-ot<\/b><\/strong><\/h2>\r\nAhhoz, hogy meg\u00e9rts\u00fck ezt a rallyt, el\u0151sz\u00f6r is meg kell \u00e9rten\u00fcnk, mi t\u00f6rt\u00e9nt a <strong><b>2016<\/b><\/strong>.\r\n\r\nWhen I entered the industry in 2010, chemical plants operated under a brutal logic:\r\n\r\n\u201cWhoever expands capacity dies, but whoever doesn\u2019t expand dies faster.\u201d\r\n\r\nTake one example. In 2014, we worked with a PTA producer running at only 60% capacity, yet they kept producing at a loss. Why? Because shutting down meant losing customers and market share. Everyone thought the same way, creating a vicious cycle of industry-wide losses.\r\n\r\nThe <strong><b>2016-os k\u00edn\u00e1lati oldali reform<\/b><\/strong>\u00a0broke this deadlock.\r\n\r\nI know the National Bureau of Statistics figures by heart:From 2016 to 2020, the chemical industry eliminated more than <strong><b>30% elavult kapacit\u00e1s<\/b><\/strong>De m\u00e9g enn\u00e9l is fontosabb: <strong><b>az \u00faj kapacit\u00e1sb\u0151v\u00edt\u00e9snek gyakorlatilag korl\u00e1tot szabtak<\/b><\/strong>.\r\n\r\nStarting in 2017, I led environmental impact assessment (EIA) applications for several new projects. I personally experienced how difficult approval became: layers of checks for environmental protection, safety, and energy consumption. A small project often took two years to approve \u2014 let alone large-scale facilities.\r\n\r\nThen, from 2022 to 2025, the chemical industry suffered consecutive years of losses. The result?<strong><b>2026-2027-ben gyakorlatilag nem terveznek jelent\u0151s \u00faj kapacit\u00e1st \u00fczembe helyezni.<\/b><\/strong>\r\n\r\nMit jelent ez?<strong><b>A vegyiparban a k\u00edn\u00e1lat az elk\u00f6vetkez\u0151 \u00e9vekre gyakorlatilag le van z\u00e1rva.<\/b><\/strong>\r\n<h2><strong><b>Mi\u00e9rt mozognak az elv\u00e1r\u00e1sok a val\u00f3s\u00e1g el\u0151tt?<\/b><\/strong><\/h2>\r\nYou might ask: I get that supply is constrained, but demand is still weak. Why are stocks rising first?\r\n\r\nLet me share a story.\r\n\r\nIn 2016, shortly after I joined my current company, I led a technical upgrade on an old plant. A neighboring chemical factory had closed, and its equipment was being scrapped and sold as scrap metal. My boss at the time \u2014 a 30-year industry veteran \u2014 looked out the window and said something I still remember:\r\n\r\n\u201cWhen prices rise later, we\u2019ll be the ones calling the shots.\u201d\r\n\r\nI didn\u2019t fully understand it then. Now I know he was right.\r\n\r\nWhen only a few major players remain on the supply side, <strong><b>az \u00e1rk\u00e9pz\u00e9si hatalom teljesen eltol\u00f3dik<\/b><\/strong>A r\u00e9gi logika szerint: <em>Ha \u00f6n nem cs\u00f6kkenti az \u00e1rakat, valaki m\u00e1s fogja.<\/em>Az \u00faj logika a k\u00f6vetkez\u0151: <em>Ha emeli az \u00e1rakat, m\u00e1sok is k\u00f6vetni fogj\u00e1k.<\/em>This isn\u2019t monopoly; it\u2019s a natural evolution of market structure.\r\n\r\nSmart money doesn\u2019t wait for prices to rise before buying.<strong><b>V\u00e1s\u00e1rol, amikor \u00fagy l\u00e1tja, hogy az \u00e1rfolyam-emelked\u00e9s elker\u00fclhetetlen.<\/b><\/strong>\r\n\r\nEz\u00e9rt <strong><b>az elv\u00e1r\u00e1sok megel\u0151zik a val\u00f3s\u00e1got<\/b><\/strong>.\r\n\r\nTake soda ash as a real-world example. At 1,200 yuan per ton, it\u2019s clearly at a low level. But think about this:If supply is locked, even a <strong><b>a kereslet szer\u00e9ny fellend\u00fcl\u00e9se<\/b><\/strong>\u00a0could trigger a sharp price jump.\r\n\r\nChemicals have a U-shaped cost curve. The cost of marginal capacity is extremely high. Once demand picks up, prices can jump sharply above marginal cost.\r\n\r\n<strong><b>Az int\u00e9zm\u00e9nyek erre az \"egyszerre\" fogadnak.<\/b><\/strong>\r\n\r\n<div id=\"attachment_9531\" style=\"width: 3472px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-9531\" class=\"size-full wp-image-9531\" src=\"https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Liquid-silicone-rubber.webp\" alt=\"vegyi anyagok\" width=\"3462\" height=\"2084\" srcset=\"https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Liquid-silicone-rubber.webp 3462w, https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Liquid-silicone-rubber-768x462.webp 768w, https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Liquid-silicone-rubber-1536x925.webp 1536w, https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Liquid-silicone-rubber-2048x1233.webp 2048w, https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Liquid-silicone-rubber-18x12.webp 18w, https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Liquid-silicone-rubber-1196x720.webp 1196w, https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Liquid-silicone-rubber-600x361.webp 600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 3462px) 100vw, 3462px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-9531\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">vegyi anyagok<\/p><\/div>\r\n<h2><strong><b>Hogyan olvassa el az aktu\u00e1lis ritmust<\/b><\/strong><\/h2>\r\nMostanra m\u00e1r azt gondolhatod, hogy vakon bika vagyok. Nem vagyok az.\r\n\r\n<strong><b>A hossz\u00fa t\u00e1v\u00fa logika \u00e9s a r\u00f6vid t\u00e1v\u00fa \u00e1rmozg\u00e1s k\u00e9t k\u00fcl\u00f6nb\u00f6z\u0151 dolog.<\/b><\/strong>\r\n\r\nIn my experience, cyclical sectors like chemicals never move straight up. They advance two steps, retreat one \u2014 sometimes even one up, two down. Why? When expectations become too unanimous, some investors rush in early, while others take profits.\r\n\r\nI saw a similar script in 2017. After supply-side reform was announced, optimism exploded and stocks surged. Then the 2018 trade war crushed demand expectations, and prices gave back most of their gains. But by 2019\u20132020, companies with real cost advantages and technical barriers hit new highs.\r\n\r\nHere\u2019s my current approach:\r\n<ul>\r\n \t<li>I <strong><b>nem fog \u00fcld\u00f6zni<\/b><\/strong>olyan r\u00e9szv\u00e9nyek, amelyek megdupl\u00e1z\u00f3dtak, de m\u00e9g mindig vesztes\u00e9gesen m\u0171k\u00f6dnek.<\/li>\r\n \t<li>Ehelyett a k\u00f6vetkez\u0151kre \u00f6sszpontos\u00edtok <strong><b>olyan szegmensek, ahol a kapacit\u00e1st teljes m\u00e9rt\u00e9kben ki\u00fcr\u00edtett\u00e9k<\/b><\/strong>, ahol a k\u00f6vetkez\u0151 k\u00e9t \u00e9vben nem lesz \u00faj k\u00edn\u00e1lat, \u00e9s ahol a szerepl\u0151k k\u00f6lts\u00e9g- vagy technikai \u00e1rkok vannak.<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\nP\u00e9ld\u00e1k:\r\n<ul>\r\n \t<li><b><\/b><strong><b>MDI<\/b><\/strong>: Csak n\u00e9h\u00e1ny glob\u00e1lis termel\u0151, szinte alig van \u00faj kapacit\u00e1s - a kereslet \u00e9l\u00e9nk\u00fcl\u00e9se eset\u00e9n hatalmas felfel\u00e9 \u00edvel\u0151 tendencia.<\/li>\r\n \t<li>Bizonyos <strong><b>speci\u00e1lis finomvegyszerek<\/b><\/strong>: Kisebb piaci t\u0151ke, de magas technikai akad\u00e1lyok, amelyek t\u00e1vol tartj\u00e1k az \u00faj versenyt\u00e1rsakat.<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<h2><strong><b>Egy elgondolkodtat\u00f3 hipot\u00e9zis<\/b><\/strong><\/h2>\r\nFinally, I&#8217;d like to propose a potentially bold hypothesis.\r\n\r\nViewing this rally only as a \u201ccyclical reversal from locked supply + recovering demand\u201d may be too simplistic.\r\n\r\n<strong><b>Lehet, hogy a vegyipar \u00e9rt\u00e9kel\u00e9si keretei teljes \u00e1talakul\u00e1son mennek kereszt\u00fcl?<\/b><\/strong>\r\n\r\nA m\u00faltban, <a href=\"https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/\">vegyi anyagok<\/a> tiszt\u00e1n ciklikus r\u00e9szv\u00e9nyekk\u00e9nt kezelt\u00e9k, amelyeket gyakran 10x k\u00f6r\u00fcli P\/E ar\u00e1nyon \u00e9rt\u00e9keltek.De ha a k\u00edn\u00e1lat hossz\u00fa t\u00e1von korl\u00e1tozott marad, a vezet\u0151 v\u00e1llalatokn\u00e1l sokkal kisebb lesz a nyeres\u00e9gingadoz\u00e1s, stabilabb lesz a cash flow \u00e9s er\u0151sebb lesz az osztal\u00e9kkapacit\u00e1s.\r\n\r\n<strong><b>Ezek m\u00e9g mindig ciklikus r\u00e9szv\u00e9nyek lesznek?<\/b><\/strong>Or could they gradually shift toward a valuation logic closer to utilities or consumer staples?\r\n\r\nI\u2019ve already started allocating part of my holdings based on this view. Of course, this is only a hypothesis \u2014 time will tell if it proves correct.\n\n\n<p><strong>Related product references:<\/strong> For formulation review or sourcing comparison, see <a href=\"https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/product\/chlumiao-ho-17-17eh\/\">CHLUMIAO HO-17\/17EH<\/a> \u00e9s <a href=\"https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/product\/chlumiao-hs-502-503-504-603-605-608-101\/\">CHLUMIAO HS-502\/503\/504\/603\/605\/608\/101<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Lately, many friends have been asking me: is it still safe to chase the chemical sector? It\u2019s true \u2014 chemicals have surged sharply over the past six months, with the entire sector up roughly&#8230;<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[120],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9562","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Why are chemicals considered the next non-ferrous metals?- Changhong Chemical<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Lately, many friends have been asking me: is it still safe to chase the chemical sector? It\u2019s true \u2014 chemicals have surged sharply over the past six months, with the entire sector up roughly 70% and countless stocks doubling. 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It\u2019s true \u2014 chemicals have surged sharply over the past six months, with the entire sector up roughly 70% and countless stocks doubling. 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