{"id":9562,"date":"2026-02-24T03:40:32","date_gmt":"2026-02-24T03:40:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/?p=9562"},"modified":"2026-04-27T11:16:13","modified_gmt":"2026-04-27T11:16:13","slug":"why-are-chemicals-considered-the-next-non-ferrous-metals","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/fr\/why-are-chemicals-considered-the-next-non-ferrous-metals\/","title":{"rendered":"Pourquoi les produits chimiques sont-ils consid\u00e9r\u00e9s comme les prochains m\u00e9taux non ferreux ?"},"content":{"rendered":"<h1><strong>Pourquoi les produits chimiques sont-ils consid\u00e9r\u00e9s comme les prochains m\u00e9taux non ferreux ?<\/strong><\/h1>\r\nDerni\u00e8rement, de nombreux amis m'ont pos\u00e9 la question : <strong><b>est-il encore prudent de s'int\u00e9resser au secteur de la chimie ?<\/b><\/strong>\r\n\r\nC'est vrai - <a href=\"https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\">Produits chimiques<\/a> have surged sharply over the past six months, with the entire sector up roughly 70% and countless stocks doubling. But the stronger the rally, the more anxious people become: afraid of buying at the top, yet also scared of missing out.\r\n\r\nAs someone with <strong><b>15 ans dans l'industrie des mat\u00e9riaux<\/b><\/strong>\u00a0- Ayant v\u00e9cu la r\u00e9forme de l'offre de 2016 et assist\u00e9 \u00e0 d'innombrables cycles, je souhaite d\u00e9cortiquer la logique fondamentale qui sous-tend ce rallye chimique. Mon objectif est de vous aider \u00e0 r\u00e9pondre \u00e0 une question essentielle :\r\n\r\n<strong><b>Pourquoi les <a href=\"https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/\">chimique<\/a> les prix des actions doublent, m\u00eame lorsque les prix des produits sont stables ou en baisse ?<\/b><\/strong>\r\n<h2><strong><b>L'apparente contradiction : Les prix des actions montent en fl\u00e8che, mais les prix des produits ne bougent pas<\/b><\/strong><\/h2>\r\nLet\u2019s start with a striking observation.\r\n\r\nFrom May last year to now, the chemical sector has performed extremely well. But looking back at our lab\u2019s purchasing records:\r\n<ul>\r\n \t<li><b><\/b><strong><b>PTA<\/b><\/strong>en janvier 2026 co\u00fbtent environ 5 200 yuans par tonne, soit \u00e0 peu pr\u00e8s le m\u00eame prix qu'en mai 2025.<\/li>\r\n \t<li><b><\/b><strong><b>Carbonate de soude<\/b><\/strong>s'est encore affaibli, passant de 1 300 \u00e0 1 200 yuans par tonne.<\/li>\r\n \t<li><b><\/b><strong><b>MDI, TDI<\/b><\/strong>et d'autres produits chimiques essentiels restent proches de leurs niveaux historiques.<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\nWorse still are corporate earnings. At an industry conference last month, a technical director from a listed chemical company told me wryly:\r\n\r\n\u201cOur company lost 300 million yuan in Q3, but our stock rose 50%. Even I can\u2019t explain it.\u201d\r\n\r\nThis is the market\u2019s biggest paradox:<strong><b>Les actions sont euphoriques, les produits stagnent et les entreprises perdent de l'argent.<\/b><\/strong>\r\n\r\nBy normal logic, this sounds like a greater-fool game.\r\n\r\nBut consider this: in January 2026 alone, the chemical sector saw <strong><b>120 milliards de yuans d'entr\u00e9es nettes de capitaux<\/b><\/strong>. Qui achetait ? Les institutions, et non les petits investisseurs. Ces acteurs n'investissent pas de l'argent r\u00e9el dans le seul but d'attraper un couteau qui tombe.\r\n\r\n<strong><b>Que voient-ils exactement ?<\/b><\/strong>\r\n\r\n<img decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-9563\" src=\"https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/chemicals-1.webp\" alt=\"Produits chimiques\" width=\"3462\" height=\"2084\" srcset=\"https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/chemicals-1.webp 3462w, https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/chemicals-1-768x462.webp 768w, https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/chemicals-1-1536x925.webp 1536w, https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/chemicals-1-2048x1233.webp 2048w, https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/chemicals-1-18x12.webp 18w, https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/chemicals-1-1196x720.webp 1196w, https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/chemicals-1-600x361.webp 600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 3462px) 100vw, 3462px\" \/>\r\n<h2><strong><b>Pour comprendre aujourd'hui, il faut comprendre 2016<\/b><\/strong><\/h2>\r\nPour comprendre ce rallye, il faut d'abord comprendre ce qui s'est pass\u00e9 en <strong><b>2016<\/b><\/strong>.\r\n\r\nWhen I entered the industry in 2010, chemical plants operated under a brutal logic:\r\n\r\n\u201cWhoever expands capacity dies, but whoever doesn\u2019t expand dies faster.\u201d\r\n\r\nTake one example. In 2014, we worked with a PTA producer running at only 60% capacity, yet they kept producing at a loss. Why? Because shutting down meant losing customers and market share. Everyone thought the same way, creating a vicious cycle of industry-wide losses.\r\n\r\nThe <strong><b>2016 r\u00e9forme de l'offre<\/b><\/strong>\u00a0broke this deadlock.\r\n\r\nI know the National Bureau of Statistics figures by heart:From 2016 to 2020, the chemical industry eliminated more than <strong><b>30% de capacit\u00e9 d\u00e9pass\u00e9e<\/b><\/strong>Mais plus important encore : <strong><b>l'expansion des nouvelles capacit\u00e9s a \u00e9t\u00e9 effectivement plafonn\u00e9e<\/b><\/strong>.\r\n\r\nStarting in 2017, I led environmental impact assessment (EIA) applications for several new projects. I personally experienced how difficult approval became: layers of checks for environmental protection, safety, and energy consumption. A small project often took two years to approve \u2014 let alone large-scale facilities.\r\n\r\nThen, from 2022 to 2025, the chemical industry suffered consecutive years of losses. The result?<strong><b>Pratiquement aucune nouvelle capacit\u00e9 importante ne devrait \u00eatre mise en service en 2026-2027.<\/b><\/strong>\r\n\r\nQu'est-ce que cela signifie ?<strong><b>L'offre dans l'ensemble de l'industrie chimique est effectivement bloqu\u00e9e pour les ann\u00e9es \u00e0 venir.<\/b><\/strong>\r\n<h2><strong><b>Pourquoi les attentes pr\u00e9c\u00e8dent-elles la r\u00e9alit\u00e9 ?<\/b><\/strong><\/h2>\r\nYou might ask: I get that supply is constrained, but demand is still weak. Why are stocks rising first?\r\n\r\nLet me share a story.\r\n\r\nIn 2016, shortly after I joined my current company, I led a technical upgrade on an old plant. A neighboring chemical factory had closed, and its equipment was being scrapped and sold as scrap metal. My boss at the time \u2014 a 30-year industry veteran \u2014 looked out the window and said something I still remember:\r\n\r\n\u201cWhen prices rise later, we\u2019ll be the ones calling the shots.\u201d\r\n\r\nI didn\u2019t fully understand it then. Now I know he was right.\r\n\r\nWhen only a few major players remain on the supply side, <strong><b>le pouvoir de fixation des prix change du tout au tout<\/b><\/strong>L'ancienne logique \u00e9tait la suivante : <em>Si vous ne baissez pas vos prix, quelqu'un d'autre le fera.<\/em>La nouvelle logique est la suivante : <em>Si vous augmentez les prix, d'autres suivront.<\/em>This isn\u2019t monopoly; it\u2019s a natural evolution of market structure.\r\n\r\nSmart money doesn\u2019t wait for prices to rise before buying.<strong><b>Il ach\u00e8te lorsqu'il per\u00e7oit l'in\u00e9vitabilit\u00e9 d'un rebond des prix.<\/b><\/strong>\r\n\r\nC'est pourquoi <strong><b>les attentes pr\u00e9c\u00e8dent la r\u00e9alit\u00e9<\/b><\/strong>.\r\n\r\nTake soda ash as a real-world example. At 1,200 yuan per ton, it\u2019s clearly at a low level. But think about this:If supply is locked, even a <strong><b>reprise modeste de la demande<\/b><\/strong>\u00a0could trigger a sharp price jump.\r\n\r\nChemicals have a U-shaped cost curve. The cost of marginal capacity is extremely high. Once demand picks up, prices can jump sharply above marginal cost.\r\n\r\n<strong><b>Les institutions parient sur ce \"une fois\".<\/b><\/strong>\r\n\r\n<div id=\"attachment_9531\" style=\"width: 3472px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-9531\" class=\"size-full wp-image-9531\" src=\"https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Liquid-silicone-rubber.webp\" alt=\"Produits chimiques\" width=\"3462\" height=\"2084\" srcset=\"https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Liquid-silicone-rubber.webp 3462w, https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Liquid-silicone-rubber-768x462.webp 768w, https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Liquid-silicone-rubber-1536x925.webp 1536w, https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Liquid-silicone-rubber-2048x1233.webp 2048w, https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Liquid-silicone-rubber-18x12.webp 18w, https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Liquid-silicone-rubber-1196x720.webp 1196w, https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Liquid-silicone-rubber-600x361.webp 600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 3462px) 100vw, 3462px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-9531\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Produits chimiques<\/p><\/div>\r\n<h2><strong><b>Comment lire le rythme actuel<\/b><\/strong><\/h2>\r\nVous pensez peut-\u00eatre que je suis aveugl\u00e9ment optimiste. Ce n'est pas le cas.\r\n\r\n<strong><b>La logique \u00e0 long terme et l'action des prix \u00e0 court terme sont deux choses diff\u00e9rentes.<\/b><\/strong>\r\n\r\nIn my experience, cyclical sectors like chemicals never move straight up. They advance two steps, retreat one \u2014 sometimes even one up, two down. Why? When expectations become too unanimous, some investors rush in early, while others take profits.\r\n\r\nI saw a similar script in 2017. After supply-side reform was announced, optimism exploded and stocks surged. Then the 2018 trade war crushed demand expectations, and prices gave back most of their gains. But by 2019\u20132020, companies with real cost advantages and technical barriers hit new highs.\r\n\r\nHere\u2019s my current approach:\r\n<ul>\r\n \t<li>I <strong><b>ne poursuivra pas<\/b><\/strong>des actions qui ont doubl\u00e9 mais qui fonctionnent toujours \u00e0 perte.<\/li>\r\n \t<li>Au lieu de cela, je me concentre sur <strong><b>les segments pour lesquels la capacit\u00e9 a \u00e9t\u00e9 enti\u00e8rement d\u00e9gag\u00e9e<\/b><\/strong>Les march\u00e9s de l'\u00e9nergie sont des march\u00e9s o\u00f9 il n'y a pas de nouvelles offres dans les deux prochaines ann\u00e9es et o\u00f9 les acteurs ont des avantages en termes de co\u00fbts ou de techniques.<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\nVoici quelques exemples :\r\n<ul>\r\n \t<li><b><\/b><strong><b>MDI<\/b><\/strong>: Il n'y a qu'une poign\u00e9e de producteurs mondiaux, presque pas de nouvelles capacit\u00e9s - un \u00e9norme potentiel de croissance si la demande se redresse.<\/li>\r\n \t<li>Certain <strong><b>chimie fine de sp\u00e9cialit\u00e9<\/b><\/strong>: Des capitalisations boursi\u00e8res plus faibles, mais des barri\u00e8res techniques \u00e9lev\u00e9es, qui emp\u00eachent les nouveaux concurrents d'entrer sur le march\u00e9.<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<h2><strong><b>Une hypoth\u00e8se qui donne \u00e0 r\u00e9fl\u00e9chir<\/b><\/strong><\/h2>\r\nFinally, I&#8217;d like to propose a potentially bold hypothesis.\r\n\r\nViewing this rally only as a \u201ccyclical reversal from locked supply + recovering demand\u201d may be too simplistic.\r\n\r\n<strong><b>Le cadre d'\u00e9valuation de l'industrie chimique serait-il en train de subir une restructuration compl\u00e8te ?<\/b><\/strong>\r\n\r\nDans le pass\u00e9, <a href=\"https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/\">Produits chimiques<\/a> Mais \u00e0 l'avenir, si l'offre reste limit\u00e9e \u00e0 long terme, les entreprises de premier plan verront la volatilit\u00e9 de leurs b\u00e9n\u00e9fices se r\u00e9duire consid\u00e9rablement, leurs flux de tr\u00e9sorerie se stabiliser et leur capacit\u00e9 \u00e0 distribuer des dividendes se renforcer.\r\n\r\n<strong><b>S'agira-t-il toujours de valeurs cycliques ?<\/b><\/strong>Or could they gradually shift toward a valuation logic closer to utilities or consumer staples?\r\n\r\nI\u2019ve already started allocating part of my holdings based on this view. Of course, this is only a hypothesis \u2014 time will tell if it proves correct.\n\n\n<p><strong>Related product references:<\/strong> For formulation review or sourcing comparison, see <a href=\"https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/product\/chlumiao-ho-17-17eh\/\">CHLUMIAO HO-17\/17EH<\/a> et <a href=\"https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/product\/chlumiao-hs-502-503-504-603-605-608-101\/\">CHLUMIAO HS-502\/503\/504\/603\/605\/608\/101<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Lately, many friends have been asking me: is it still safe to chase the chemical sector? It\u2019s true \u2014 chemicals have surged sharply over the past six months, with the entire sector up roughly&#8230;<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[120],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9562","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Why are chemicals considered the next non-ferrous metals?- Changhong Chemical<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Lately, many friends have been asking me: is it still safe to chase the chemical sector? It\u2019s true \u2014 chemicals have surged sharply over the past six months, with the entire sector up roughly 70% and countless stocks doubling. 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