{"id":9562,"date":"2026-02-24T03:40:32","date_gmt":"2026-02-24T03:40:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/?p=9562"},"modified":"2026-04-27T11:16:13","modified_gmt":"2026-04-27T11:16:13","slug":"why-are-chemicals-considered-the-next-non-ferrous-metals","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/de\/why-are-chemicals-considered-the-next-non-ferrous-metals\/","title":{"rendered":"Warum werden Chemikalien als die n\u00e4chsten Nichteisenmetalle betrachtet?"},"content":{"rendered":"<h1><strong>Warum werden Chemikalien als die n\u00e4chsten Nichteisenmetalle betrachtet?<\/strong><\/h1>\r\nIn letzter Zeit haben mich viele Freunde gefragt: <strong><b>Ist es immer noch sicher, den Chemiesektor zu verfolgen?<\/b><\/strong>\r\n\r\nEs ist wahr. <a href=\"https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\">Chemikalien<\/a> have surged sharply over the past six months, with the entire sector up roughly 70% and countless stocks doubling. But the stronger the rally, the more anxious people become: afraid of buying at the top, yet also scared of missing out.\r\n\r\nAs someone with <strong><b>15 Jahre Erfahrung in der Werkstoffindustrie<\/b><\/strong>\u00a0- der die angebotsseitige Reform von 2016 miterlebt und unz\u00e4hlige Zyklen miterlebt hat - m\u00f6chte ich die grundlegende Logik hinter dieser chemischen Rallye aufschl\u00fcsseln. Mein Ziel ist es, Ihnen zu helfen, eine entscheidende Frage zu beantworten:\r\n\r\n<strong><b>Warum sind <a href=\"https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/\">Chemie<\/a> Aktienkurse verdoppeln, auch wenn die Produktpreise stagnieren oder fallen?<\/b><\/strong>\r\n<h2><strong><b>Der offensichtliche Widerspruch: Aktienkurse schie\u00dfen in die H\u00f6he, aber die Produktpreise bewegen sich nicht<\/b><\/strong><\/h2>\r\nLet\u2019s start with a striking observation.\r\n\r\nFrom May last year to now, the chemical sector has performed extremely well. But looking back at our lab\u2019s purchasing records:\r\n<ul>\r\n \t<li><b><\/b><strong><b>PTA<\/b><\/strong>im Januar 2026 rund 5.200 Yuan pro Tonne kosten - etwa so viel wie im Mai 2025.<\/li>\r\n \t<li><b><\/b><strong><b>Soda-Asche<\/b><\/strong>hat sich weiter abgeschw\u00e4cht und ist von 1.300 auf 1.200 Yuan pro Tonne gefallen.<\/li>\r\n \t<li><b><\/b><strong><b>MDI, TDI<\/b><\/strong>und andere wichtige Chemikalien bleiben in der N\u00e4he historischer Tiefstst\u00e4nde.<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\nWorse still are corporate earnings. At an industry conference last month, a technical director from a listed chemical company told me wryly:\r\n\r\n\u201cOur company lost 300 million yuan in Q3, but our stock rose 50%. Even I can\u2019t explain it.\u201d\r\n\r\nThis is the market\u2019s biggest paradox:<strong><b>Die Aktien sind euphorisch, die Produkte stagnieren, und die Unternehmen verlieren Geld.<\/b><\/strong>\r\n\r\nBy normal logic, this sounds like a greater-fool game.\r\n\r\nBut consider this: in January 2026 alone, the chemical sector saw <strong><b>120 Milliarden Yuan an Nettokapitalzufl\u00fcssen<\/b><\/strong>. Wer hat gekauft? Institutionelle Anleger, keine Kleinanleger. Diese Akteure investieren kein echtes Geld, nur um ein fallendes Messer zu fangen.\r\n\r\n<strong><b>Was genau sehen sie also?<\/b><\/strong>\r\n\r\n<img decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-9563\" src=\"https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/chemicals-1.webp\" alt=\"Chemikalien\" width=\"3462\" height=\"2084\" srcset=\"https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/chemicals-1.webp 3462w, https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/chemicals-1-768x462.webp 768w, https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/chemicals-1-1536x925.webp 1536w, https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/chemicals-1-2048x1233.webp 2048w, https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/chemicals-1-18x12.webp 18w, https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/chemicals-1-1196x720.webp 1196w, https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/chemicals-1-600x361.webp 600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 3462px) 100vw, 3462px\" \/>\r\n<h2><strong><b>Um das Heute zu verstehen, muss man das Jahr 2016 verstehen<\/b><\/strong><\/h2>\r\nUm diese Rallye zu begreifen, muss man zun\u00e4chst verstehen, was in <strong><b>2016<\/b><\/strong>.\r\n\r\nWhen I entered the industry in 2010, chemical plants operated under a brutal logic:\r\n\r\n\u201cWhoever expands capacity dies, but whoever doesn\u2019t expand dies faster.\u201d\r\n\r\nTake one example. In 2014, we worked with a PTA producer running at only 60% capacity, yet they kept producing at a loss. Why? Because shutting down meant losing customers and market share. Everyone thought the same way, creating a vicious cycle of industry-wide losses.\r\n\r\nThe <strong><b>Reform der Angebotsseite 2016<\/b><\/strong>\u00a0broke this deadlock.\r\n\r\nI know the National Bureau of Statistics figures by heart:From 2016 to 2020, the chemical industry eliminated more than <strong><b>30% mit veralteter Kapazit\u00e4t<\/b><\/strong>Aber noch wichtiger ist: <strong><b>neue Kapazit\u00e4tserweiterungen wurden effektiv gedeckelt<\/b><\/strong>.\r\n\r\nStarting in 2017, I led environmental impact assessment (EIA) applications for several new projects. I personally experienced how difficult approval became: layers of checks for environmental protection, safety, and energy consumption. A small project often took two years to approve \u2014 let alone large-scale facilities.\r\n\r\nThen, from 2022 to 2025, the chemical industry suffered consecutive years of losses. The result?<strong><b>In den Jahren 2026-2027 sollen praktisch keine gr\u00f6\u00dferen neuen Kapazit\u00e4ten ans Netz gehen.<\/b><\/strong>\r\n\r\nWas bedeutet das?<strong><b>Die Versorgung der gesamten chemischen Industrie ist f\u00fcr die n\u00e4chsten Jahre gesichert.<\/b><\/strong>\r\n<h2><strong><b>Warum gehen die Erwartungen der Realit\u00e4t voraus?<\/b><\/strong><\/h2>\r\nYou might ask: I get that supply is constrained, but demand is still weak. Why are stocks rising first?\r\n\r\nLet me share a story.\r\n\r\nIn 2016, shortly after I joined my current company, I led a technical upgrade on an old plant. A neighboring chemical factory had closed, and its equipment was being scrapped and sold as scrap metal. My boss at the time \u2014 a 30-year industry veteran \u2014 looked out the window and said something I still remember:\r\n\r\n\u201cWhen prices rise later, we\u2019ll be the ones calling the shots.\u201d\r\n\r\nI didn\u2019t fully understand it then. Now I know he was right.\r\n\r\nWhen only a few major players remain on the supply side, <strong><b>die Preissetzungsmacht verschiebt sich vollst\u00e4ndig<\/b><\/strong>Die alte Logik war: <em>Wenn Sie die Preise nicht senken, wird es jemand anderes tun.<\/em>Die neue Logik lautet: <em>Wenn Sie die Preise erh\u00f6hen, werden andere folgen.<\/em>This isn\u2019t monopoly; it\u2019s a natural evolution of market structure.\r\n\r\nSmart money doesn\u2019t wait for prices to rise before buying.<strong><b>Er kauft, wenn er die Unvermeidbarkeit eines Preisanstiegs sieht.<\/b><\/strong>\r\n\r\nDeshalb ist <strong><b>die Erwartungen gehen der Realit\u00e4t voraus<\/b><\/strong>.\r\n\r\nTake soda ash as a real-world example. At 1,200 yuan per ton, it\u2019s clearly at a low level. But think about this:If supply is locked, even a <strong><b>bescheidene Erholung der Nachfrage<\/b><\/strong>\u00a0could trigger a sharp price jump.\r\n\r\nChemicals have a U-shaped cost curve. The cost of marginal capacity is extremely high. Once demand picks up, prices can jump sharply above marginal cost.\r\n\r\n<strong><b>Die Institutionen setzen auf dieses \"Einmal\".<\/b><\/strong>\r\n\r\n<div id=\"attachment_9531\" style=\"width: 3472px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-9531\" class=\"size-full wp-image-9531\" src=\"https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Liquid-silicone-rubber.webp\" alt=\"Chemikalien\" width=\"3462\" height=\"2084\" srcset=\"https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Liquid-silicone-rubber.webp 3462w, https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Liquid-silicone-rubber-768x462.webp 768w, https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Liquid-silicone-rubber-1536x925.webp 1536w, https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Liquid-silicone-rubber-2048x1233.webp 2048w, https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Liquid-silicone-rubber-18x12.webp 18w, https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Liquid-silicone-rubber-1196x720.webp 1196w, https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Liquid-silicone-rubber-600x361.webp 600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 3462px) 100vw, 3462px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-9531\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Chemikalien<\/p><\/div>\r\n<h2><strong><b>Wie man den aktuellen Rhythmus liest<\/b><\/strong><\/h2>\r\nSie k\u00f6nnten jetzt denken, dass ich blindlings bullisch bin. Das bin ich nicht.\r\n\r\n<strong><b>Langfristige Logik und kurzfristige Kursentwicklung sind zwei verschiedene Dinge.<\/b><\/strong>\r\n\r\nIn my experience, cyclical sectors like chemicals never move straight up. They advance two steps, retreat one \u2014 sometimes even one up, two down. Why? When expectations become too unanimous, some investors rush in early, while others take profits.\r\n\r\nI saw a similar script in 2017. After supply-side reform was announced, optimism exploded and stocks surged. Then the 2018 trade war crushed demand expectations, and prices gave back most of their gains. But by 2019\u20132020, companies with real cost advantages and technical barriers hit new highs.\r\n\r\nHere\u2019s my current approach:\r\n<ul>\r\n \t<li>I <strong><b>wird nicht jagen<\/b><\/strong>Aktien, die sich verdoppelt haben, aber immer noch mit Verlust arbeiten.<\/li>\r\n \t<li>Stattdessen konzentriere ich mich auf <strong><b>Segmente, in denen die Kapazit\u00e4t vollst\u00e4ndig abgebaut wurde<\/b><\/strong>die in den n\u00e4chsten zwei Jahren kein neues Angebot haben und bei denen die Marktteilnehmer \u00fcber einen Kosten- oder technischen Vorteil verf\u00fcgen.<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\nBeispiele hierf\u00fcr sind:\r\n<ul>\r\n \t<li><b><\/b><strong><b>MDI<\/b><\/strong>: Nur eine Handvoll Produzenten weltweit, fast keine neuen Kapazit\u00e4ten - enorme Chancen, wenn sich die Nachfrage erholt.<\/li>\r\n \t<li>Bestimmte <strong><b>Spezialisierte Feinchemikalien<\/b><\/strong>: Geringere Marktkapitalisierung, aber hohe technische Barrieren, die neue Wettbewerber fernhalten.<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<h2><strong><b>Eine zum Nachdenken anregende Hypothese<\/b><\/strong><\/h2>\r\nFinally, I&#8217;d like to propose a potentially bold hypothesis.\r\n\r\nViewing this rally only as a \u201ccyclical reversal from locked supply + recovering demand\u201d may be too simplistic.\r\n\r\n<strong><b>K\u00f6nnte der Bewertungsrahmen der chemischen Industrie eine vollst\u00e4ndige Umstrukturierung erfahren?<\/b><\/strong>\r\n\r\nIn der Vergangenheit, <a href=\"https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/\">Chemikalien<\/a> wurden als rein zyklische Aktien behandelt, die oft mit einem KGV von etwa 10 bewertet wurden. Wenn das Angebot jedoch langfristig begrenzt bleibt, werden die f\u00fchrenden Unternehmen in Zukunft eine viel geringere Gewinnvolatilit\u00e4t, einen stabileren Cashflow und eine h\u00f6here Dividendenkapazit\u00e4t aufweisen.\r\n\r\n<strong><b>Werden es weiterhin zyklische Aktien sein?<\/b><\/strong>Or could they gradually shift toward a valuation logic closer to utilities or consumer staples?\r\n\r\nI\u2019ve already started allocating part of my holdings based on this view. Of course, this is only a hypothesis \u2014 time will tell if it proves correct.\n\n\n<p><strong>Related product references:<\/strong> For formulation review or sourcing comparison, see <a href=\"https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/product\/chlumiao-ho-17-17eh\/\">CHLUMIAO HO-17\/17EH<\/a> und <a href=\"https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/product\/chlumiao-hs-502-503-504-603-605-608-101\/\">CHLUMIAO HS-502\/503\/504\/603\/605\/608\/101<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Lately, many friends have been asking me: is it still safe to chase the chemical sector? It\u2019s true \u2014 chemicals have surged sharply over the past six months, with the entire sector up roughly&#8230;<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[120],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9562","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Why are chemicals considered the next non-ferrous metals?- Changhong Chemical<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Lately, many friends have been asking me: is it still safe to chase the chemical sector? It\u2019s true \u2014 chemicals have surged sharply over the past six months, with the entire sector up roughly 70% and countless stocks doubling. 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Es stimmt - der Chemiesektor ist in den letzten sechs Monaten stark angestiegen, der gesamte Sektor hat rund 70% zugelegt und zahlreiche Aktien haben sich verdoppelt. Aber je st\u00e4rker die Rallye, desto \u00e4ngstlicher werden die Menschen: Sie haben Angst, an der Spitze zu kaufen, aber auch Angst, etwas zu verpassen.","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/changhongchemical.com\/de\/why-are-chemicals-considered-the-next-non-ferrous-metals\/","og_locale":"de_DE","og_type":"article","og_title":"Why are chemicals considered the next non-ferrous metals?- Changhong Chemical","og_description":"Lately, many friends have been asking me: is it still safe to chase the chemical sector? It\u2019s true \u2014 chemicals have surged sharply over the past six months, with the entire sector up roughly 70% and countless stocks doubling. 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